Why Solar is the Hottest Technology in Clean Energy

Going Through The Roof

When is comes to clean energy, the most rapidly growing segment by a wide margin is solar. World solar cell production grew by almost 40% in 2006, while U.S. shipments increased by over 50%. For many of these companies, their biggest problem is meeting demand and some have several years’ worth of orders.



Even politicians on the far left who rarely have anything good to say about corporations or capitalists have blessed these companies, and most are calling for greater “investment” here. Many states will pay part of the cost of purchasing one of these systems and the Federal government will also chip in some incentives. Meanwhile, these companies have a miniscule share of what is a huge potential market.

Why Solar?

The major alternative energy technologies include biofuels, hydrogen & fuel cells, wind turbines, and solar. Of these, solar panels are by far the cleanest and safest method of power generation. In addition, they don’t require new infrastructure, generate power at the intended site, can be connected to the existing electricity grid, produce maximum power during periods of peak demand, require little maintenance, and can last up to 45 years.

The biggest issue for this industry is that solar is still a very expensive way to produce electricity. Without government subsidies, demand would be a small fraction of what it is now. However, manufacturing economies of scale are steadily reducing the cost. The rule of thumb, based upon decades of history in Japan, is that costs decline by around 20% every time production doubles. As a result, the most rapidly growing solar technologies have the best chance of producing electricity for a competitive price in the shortest period.

The Market

Although solar cells were developed about 50 years ago, high costs limited their use for many decades. As costs gradually came down, solar became cost effective for some remote locations not covered by the electricity grid. As costs came down further, solar began to make sense in countries with high electricity generation costs and in growing third world countries that had a constant problem with power reliability and availability. Add expanding subsidies because of concerns over climate change in some parts of the world, and demand increased further. Because of historically high power costs and the willingness to provide generous incentives, Japan and Germany are currently the largest global producers of solar power.

The United States is currently the world’s third largest producer even though it has more sunshine and real estate than Germany and Japan. A leftward shift in state and national politics in the last few years has produced more solar incentives, and this technology is currently gaining momentum. In 2006, shipments in the U.S. increased by over 50% while world production rose by about 40%. Although this growth is from a very small base, the current rate is still significantly higher than other clean energy technologies.

According to industry sources, revenues are expected to increase to by 23% annually to 2010. Given current order rates, this expected growth rate of 23% may turn out to be conservative. Even if these forecasts pan out, solar will still account for less than 1% of overall electricity production in the U.S in 2010. However, once it becomes competitive without subsidies, solar will be poised to take a much larger share of the market for electricity. This is now around $275 billion in the U.S. and several times that on a global basis www.eia.doe.gov.

Subsidies

Solar panels are still too expensive and most still have relatively poor efficiency (the amount of sunlight converted to electricity). As a result, subsidies are required to make the economics work for most potential buyers. Leaving aside the ethical issue of requiring taxpayers that decide not to install solar panels to subsidize those that do, the most important consideration when it comes to subsidies is politics, not sunshine. At the state level, an abundance of liberal politicians is more important than an abundance of sunshine, which is why you’ll find more solar panels on roofs in New Jersey than Arizona.

The Light at the End of the Tunnel

Hybrids Take the Next Step

With gasoline now over $4.00 per gallon in many states and oil prices continuing to rise, the question on the minds of most consumers is how long they will have to spend an increasing share of their income on energy in general and gasoline in particular.



Our reliance on a 19th century technology (the internal combustion engine) and a single fuel for our transportation needs has brought us to a point where there don’t appear to be any good choices. However, looks can be deceiving, the next clear choice for consumers will be alternative energy.

Converting Electricity to Fuel

The problem with clean energy sources like wind and solar has always been that they can only be used to produce electricity. Until recently, covering the U.S. with wind turbines and solar panels would do little to impact the demand for oil. Oil and the fuels produced from it used to be the only practical way of powering vehicles. However, aging petroleum reserves around the world and the lack of major new discoveries have made it increasingly difficult for oil production to keep up with demand. Combine this with the additional problems of unstable sources of supply and concerns over climate change, and it’s becoming increasingly apparent the only realistic solution to these problems is to find another vehicle fuel.

Of the fuels under consideration, electricity appears to be the best alternative. The infrastructure for electricity is already in place and all we need is available from a wide variety of domestic sources. It is also the only fuel that consumers can produce themselves. Other fuels under consideration including hydrogen and ethanol have numerous problems including the lack of infrastructure and a price that will always be too high. When used to power a vehicle, driving costs of a few cents per mile will eventually make it impossible for other alternatives, including gasoline, to compete.

Hybrids – the First Step

One of the most important things hybrids have done is take the first step toward using electricity as a power source. Once a driver takes their foot off the gas, a hybrid is powered by electricity. In addition, regenerative braking is used to capture the energy used in braking to recharge the battery. By combining two power sources, hybrids offer better performance and more horsepower while also increasing fuel savings significantly. In addition to better gas mileage, hybrids have more horsepower and are more fun to drive than the original. Marketing these should be a slam dunk.

So Why Aren’t Hybrids More Popular?

Toyota currently has the state of the-art hybrid technology and this has been licensed to several other auto makers. However, their marketing department appears to have a major brain cramp when it comes to selling these. By mostly selling hybrid versions of existing vehicles with too big a differential in price, consumers can see immediately that it will take longer than most plan to own the hybrid to recover the difference in price from fuel savings. By creating this comparison, Toyota and the other hybrid manufacturers produced a huge reason not to buy a hybrid.

As mentioned previously, hybrids have more horsepower than the original because they combine an electric motor with a combustion engine. However, the environmental movement appears determined to make Americans drive ugly little underpowered cars and they seem to go into a hissy fit when auto companies try to appeal to the mass market by producing faster cars that are more fun to drive. Because of this, the one thing that might have made consumers more willing to pay the price differential wasn’t mentioned. The result is a technology that should be taking the auto industry by storm accounts for only 3-4% of the market. To reinforce this point, it’s worth noting the Prius is the only one without a non-hybrid version, and this has become their most popular hybrid.

However, rising gas prices appear to be overcoming poor marketing, and hybrid sales are picking up. Fortunately, more auto companies such as GM and Nissan/Renault are ramping up to produce hybrids and the premium may decline to $2,000 in a few years. The companies likely to be the most successful will probably be the ones that create distinct hybrids instead of trying to revamp existing models.

Better Batteries to the Rescue

To date, the battery material used in hybrids has been nickel. While this is a slight improvement over the old lead batteries, these still have poor energy density which adds too much weight to a vehicle. For perspective, 100 pounds of lead turned into a battery will produce enough power to drive a vehicle 10 miles while the same weight in nickel will increase the range to 15 miles. However, 100 pounds of lithium produces a range of 40 miles.

Because of this, lithium has become the material of choice for smaller applications including computers and cell phones. However, beginning in 2008, the world’s major battery makers are ramping up to mass produce large format lithium batteries for vehicles. By replacing nickel batteries with lithium batteries the same size, the combination of more energy density and less weight make it possible to dramatically increase the range of a vehicle powered by electricity and significantly reduce the demand for gasoline.

After Market Conversions

Even though the technology exists right now to produce a plug-in hybrid, 2010 appears to be the earliest that major automakers will bring one of these to the market. The good news is that consumers don’t have to wait. Companies are currently lining up to do after market conversions. Most are starting with the Prius because there are more of those on the road, but conversions are expected to be available for other hybrids within the next year. Current conversions are relatively expensive, priced at around $10k or more. However, with large format lithium batteries going into mass production, the price is expected to drop by 75% or more in the next few years.

A Modest Proposal

With private companies now doing what Toyota claims isn’t possible yet, the world’s largest automaker is probably a tad embarrassed. Their reaction has been to raise safety issues about lithium batteries that have been long since resolved and threaten to void the warranty on any conversions. However, this shouldn’t necessarily cause hybrid owners to wait until the warranty has expired before converting. The decision will be based on balancing the expected fuel savings against having to pay for parts no longer covered by the warranty. In this case, a vehicle that has historically needed the fewest repairs would be the best candidate for a conversion.

For those considering the purchase of a hybrid right now, I suggests a modest proposal. Dealers are currently charging a premium because of strong demand, so why not buy a used one, take the savings, and spend it on an after market conversion to a plug-in? Your range should be around 50 miles before having to use a drop of gasoline. With the first plug-in coming to market from Fisker Automotive in 2009 and priced at $80K, this might be the best way to get one for a reasonable price without having to wait.


Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NTPS), Volpe National Transportation System Center, Cambridge, MA 1991

If you think driving 50 miles without using gasoline isn’t a big deal, think again. It’s huge. Approximately 80% of Americans drive 50 miles per day or less; this is the light at the end of the tunnel. Imagine going from the current situation to telling the loosely wrapped collection of despots that control world petroleum reserves, to put their oil where the sun doesn’t shine.

It won’t happen immediately, but the technology finally exists to power our vehicles with a renewable fuel that can be made from multiple domestic sources including wind and sunshine. Even better, it will reduce driving costs dramatically, and finally allow us to give the Middle East the lack of attention it deserves.

Fire Sale in Clean Energy?

Is the Stock Market Over-
looking the Fundamentals?

After scorching the stock market in 2007, clean energy stocks are currently on sale. The WilderHill Clean Energy Index (symbol ECO) produced a return of 58.87% in 2007. However, in the first five months of 2008, investors have taken profits. Through 5/31/08, this index is down 18.68% for the year and it’s hard to find a group of stocks that have done any worse. Is this a buying opportunity, or were these stocks just a flash in the pan last year?

The Next Big Thing?

In the 1980s it was biotech. In the 1990s, it was the Internet. This decade, there’s a very good chance it will be alternative energy.

Clean energy stocks have the problem of being small and speculative in a declining market that usually makes investors gravitate to quality. However, the most attractive companies in this area have continued to grow while their stock price has declined. Some companies have several years’ worth of orders and their biggest problem is keeping up with demand. When it comes to finding companies that will benefit from oil over $100 per barrel and will also be helped by a likely turn to the left in national politics in 2008, clean energy stocks are at the top of a short list of companies.

The Two Main Catalysts:

Fossil fuel production will be unable to keep up with demand. Oil prices continue to break records and the rise in prices comes back to basic supply and demand. There have been no major oil fields brought into production for decades, while demand continues to rise. As older oil fields begin to show their age, it becomes increasingly difficult to produce the same amount of oil. World oil production will peak in the not too distant future, if it hasn’t already while demand for oil will continue to grow. Energy alternatives will be the only way to make up the shortfall.

Rising oil prices have done what government programs were unable to. Alternative energy is becoming competitive. The increasing demand for wind and solar is bringing down the price of those technologies while fossil fuel prices continue to increase. Wind technology already produces electricity for a price that’s competitive with a utility burning fossil fuel. According to First Solar, the current low cost producer of electricity from sunshine, they will be competitive in two years. Once the need for government subsidies is eliminated a huge potential market opens up. Many countries have chronic power shortages and would prefer to satisfy their needs with a technology that doesn’t leave them dependent on others.

Breaking the Conundrum

In the past, clean energy technologies could do little to impact the demand for oil from the Middle East. The problem was that wind and solar technologies produce electricity, while world oil supplies are primarily used as a transportation fuel. As long as the U.S. needs gasoline and diesel to power its vehicles, we’re dependent on the countries that control world oil supplies.

Without much fanfare, this problem is in the process of being solved Electricity is likely to become the next transportation fuel, and two types of vehicles that can be powered by electrons instead of gasoline are going from concept to reality. This year (2008) will mark a watershed for this technology as Tesla Motors will begin shipping the first electric vehicle that’s fun to drive in first half of this year. It’s a sleek roadster that will turn heads and perform like a high end sports car.


Watch the video to learn more about the Tesla electric roadster.

However, electric cars still have limitations including range and the lack of charging stations. Until something like a recent breakthrough by a Stanford scientist extends the range of EVs, plug-in hybrids appear poised to become the next major market in the auto industry. The switch from nickel to lithium batteries will allow plug-in hybrids to go 50 miles before requiring a drop of gasoline. Once the battery power is exhausted, these will have the range of any other gasoline powered car. What makes these compelling is the vast majority of Americans drive less than 50 miles per day, and consumers can benefit from very low electricity prices that will result in driving costs of pennies per mile if they plug in their vehicle overnight.

Electric cars and plug-in hybrids will also increase the demand for solar panels, as these will allow consumers to make their own fuel. It’s one thing for a homeowner to install solar panels on the roof and reduce or eliminate their electricity bill. However, if that same homeowner can eliminate their electricity bill and produce a lifetime supply of fuel for a vehicle, the economics of solar become much more compelling.

Too Much Money, Too Few Stocks

I believe these technologies will become the next big thing because of economics and not because of doomsday forecasts about global warming. However, concerns over the impact of climate change appear to be the primary driver of the first initiative to invest public retirement plans in clean energy technologies. California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Oregon are the first, but almost certainly not the last, to announce plans to invest more than $1 billion in clean energy companies.

Odyssey Advisors maintains a database of publicly traded companies that derive most or all of their revenues from clean energy. At present, there are fewer than 100 companies, including ADRs. Eliminating companies that are the equivalent of the Roach Motel (you can check in, but you can’t check out) because of their small size reduces the list to less than forty. Of what’s remaining, three qualify as large companies. Right now, that’s the clean energy universe for banks, trust companies, and other institutional investors that limit their investments to the large cap segment of the stock market. Value investors that aren’t fussy about company size currently have five to choose from, one of which is an ADR.

Ultimately, what caused internet stocks to skyrocket in the 1990s was too much investor money chasing too few investment quality companies. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see the same thing happen with clean energy. With state retirement plans and institutional investors now starting to line up to invest in clean energy, there are far fewer stocks available.